On June 30, 2009 for "all areas and types" we recorded a Monthly Median Sales Price of $124,000, up 7.8% from the $115,000 we recorded on April 30.

This is for ALL ARMLS listings and all types of dwellings, so it represents the median across this entire market. But specific sectors may be performing quite differently. The principal reason for the price increase is the change in the market in west Phoenix, where properties below $50,000 have become much scarcer and purchase prices have risen sharply due to intense competition and reduced supply. A similar increase in pricing, but less pronounced, can be seen in many other affordable areas of the valley. In addition, lender owned properties now comprise a diminishing percentage of the total number of homes sold, diluting their power to bring the median sales price down to the extreme lows we saw in April.

Pricing above the $500,000 level is still falling, but these homes now constitute a very small part of the market compared with a few years ago.

According to Cromford Report, a Phoenix based housing market research firm, its Market Index reached 110.1 - the first time it has entered the Green Zone since November 16, 2005.

When the index rises above 110 it signifies we are in a seller's market with demand comfortably outpacing supply.

Since this is for ALL ARMLS listings and all types of dwellings, it represents the entire market. Individual sectors may be well above or below this value. In general, the affordable sectors are showing Cromford Market Index values higher than this while the luxury home areas are below.

Among the larger cities, Phoenix, Mesa, Gilbert, Glendale, Surprise, Peoria, Queen Creek, Avondale and Goodyear are already in the green zone, while Scottsdale and Tempe are still in the red. Chandler currently lies in the balanced yellow zone.

Below are the Makret Index for each selected cities.

Anthem - 152.0
Chandler - 95.7
Gilbert - 113.4
Laveen - 202.1
Maricopa - 235.8
Mesa - 111.7
Phoenix - 133.9
Queen Creek - 220.3
Scottsdale - 57.9
Tempe - 67.5

If you are interested in a city which is not listed here, please email me at gchen@az-realty.com.

For the first time in 16 months, The Conference Board's Employment Trend Index (ETI) saw a positive move.

Arizona's jobless rate checked in at 7.7 percent in April, down .1 percent since March. May numbers for the state will be released in roughly two weeks.

Meanwhile, APL, a shipping container company, announced that they will move their regional headquarters from Oakland, CA, to the Kierland mixed-use development in northeast Phoenix. The move is expected to happen in the third quarter of 2009 and eventually bringing 300 and 400 new jobs to the Phoenix area.

It is still too early to say that the ETI has bottomed, the moderation of the last two months is certainly a sign that the decline in job losses is real and signals that the worst is over.

What does this mean regarding the Phoenix housing market? Certainly it is a positive sign and goes hand in hand with other real estate stats. But the effect still remains to be seen.

Maricopa county trustee sales rose in May to 3,809, but this is still lower than 8 out of the 12 most recent months. Notices of foreclosure dropped to 8,613, but this is still the third highest month ever. With cancelled foreclosures at 2,354 in May, the inventory of pending foreclosures has stabilized at around 45,000. 42,813 foreclosed properties have been sold through ARMLS in the last year. Since sales of REOs through ARMLS currently exceed 6,000 per month, the trustees would have to dramatically increase the foreclosure rate to keep up with buyer demand for foreclosed properties, so we anticipate the inventory of REOs on ARMLS will decline further over the next month.

May produced a very strong sales number of 9,293 across all areas and types. This is the 8th highest monthly total for sales on record. The record level was 10,223 set in June 2005. Given the continued high pending sales count it is possible that this record could be challenged in June 2009.

Supply tightened across the board although there are still plenty of active listings above $500,000. Those buyers hunting for affordable lender owned properties are finding them very much scarcer. Many have started to try to pick them up at the pre-foreclosure rather than try to hunt them down as REO where competition is extremely fierce.

In most areas the fall in the supply of REOs is remarkable. Let's compare the number of single family detached REOs that are active (without contingent offers) on June 2 versus March 2:

1.Phoenix 1,323 (was 3,409)
2.Mesa 388 (was 803)
3.Glendale 270 (was 743)
4.Buckeye 170 (was 443)
5.Scottsdale 154 (was 264)
6.Chandler 155 (was 277)
7.Peoria 139 (was 384)
8.Queen Creek 137 (was 361)
9.Gilbert 136 (was 330)
10.Surprise 129 (was 429)
11.Avondale 109 (was 404)
12.Maricopa 90 (was 334)
13.Goodyear 80 (was 247)
14.El Mirage 45 (was 188)
15.Tempe 24 (was 57)

The $/SF pricing for lender owned properties has increased sharply by 2.2% since hitting a low point on April 27, while $/SF pricing for normal sales is up more modestly by 1.8% from the low point on April 6. $/SF pricing for short sales and pre-foreclosures is still falling and looks set to fall a little further yet. Overall $/SF pricing has moved higher by 4.2% since the low point of April 6. The reason this number is higher than any of the sub-categories is that the sales mix has moved away from REOs and towards normal sales. This is trend that is likely to continue as the percentage of REOs (57.2%) among pending sales is dropping sharply from the peak of 68.4% reached on February 21.

The recovery is still strongest at the affordable end of the market, but we are now seeing sales volumes increase significantly across price ranges up to $2,000,000. It seems buyer enthusiasm is spreading up-market faster than we previously anticipated.

Sales of bank-owned single-family homes are fueling the Phoenix-area real estate market. Sales of existing homes jumped 75 percent from the same time last year. Last month there were 8,423 resale transactions compared with 4,804 in April 2008. The average price of a resale home in April was $152,592. The median price in April was $113,000. It confirms my forecast one month ago that the bottom for segment of below $150,000 was set.

Due to abnormally high number of pending listings (13,814) coupled with a very high monthly sales rate (9,630 today, or 9,249 as a rolling 7-day average), it looks likely that we shall approach or even exceed 10,000 sales through ARMLS in May 2009.

In addition, there are a record number of active listings with contingent offers (4,549), mostly associated with short sales. Offers for short sales are growing rapidly and closed short-sales exceeded 900 per month for the first time on May 21.

There were 789 new home closings in April compared with 1,832 in April 2008. The average price of a new home in April was $288,689. The median price in April was $190,000. Building permits continue to slip. Last month, 622 permits were issued in the Phoenix area compared with 1,473 in April 2008. However, that is an increase from January when they dropped below 300.

The permit trend is encouraging and demonstrates that new home spec inventory is diminished, allowing builders to start some new homes where sales have occurred.

As I said a couple of months ago that I believed the bottom of the Phoenix housing marketing was forming up.

It started off with those market offering below $100,000 signle family homes such as City of Maricopa, Queen Creek, Good Year and Arizona City. Most of the properties in this segment were lender owned ince ditressed investors and home owners walked away since 2006.

Once price declined to a certain level and sales volume increased, price stopped to drop and inventories reduced. At this time, good properties became hard to find and multiple offers and/or over bidding happened. It was so true for the segment of $100,000 and below back in March and April.

Next happen was the segment of $150,000 and below. Markets include Anthem, Laveen, Gilbert and area mentioned previsouly all got heated up by the first time home buyers motivated by low price, low interest rate and the $8,000 tax credit. In addition, many investors having cash in hands also joined the crowd. It started not long ago, end of March and first week of April, and the momentum is still growing.

This is a decisive season. If you wish to catch the upstream for the rest of the 10-year cycle, stay tuned.

Number of Active Listings

All cities under our radar posted less inventories month over month and double digits reduction in inventories comparing to a year ago.

- Actiive listing in Anthem reduced from 275 a month ago to 228, an encouraging 17% drop month over month. Or from 566 a year ago, almost 60% drop year over year.
- Chandler lowered from 1,731 to only 1,521, 12% drop month over month, or 28% drop from 2,121 a year ago.
- Gilbert was 1,956 and is now just 1,723 a health 12% decline or 29% drop comparing a year ago.
- Laveen was 485 a month ago and is now 428, a positive 12% drop. It posts 18% decrease from 519 a year ago.
- Mesa changed from 2,876 down to 2,510 month over month, or 27% drop from 3,451 a year ago.
- Phoenix decreased from 8,501 to 7,116 an encouraging 19% or a huge 32% drop from 10,441 a year ago.
- Queen Creek was 1,473 and is now 1,258 or 31% drop from 1,816 a year ago.
- Scottsdale was 4,000 and dropped slightly to 3,794 or 13% drop from 4,344 over 12 months.
- Tempe was 515 and is now 461 or steady 16% drop from 546 a year ago.

Sold Listings

Again, all cities showed positive growth for the past 30 days except Anthem and Laveen.

- Anthem slowed down from 62 to 53 month over month.
- Chandler has 289 listings sold, increased by 15% comparing to 251 a month ago.
- Gilbert was 319 and is now 388, 22% growth.
- Laveen was 110 a month ago and is now 106.
- Mesa changed from 542 to 614, 13% more month over month.
- Phoenix progressed from 1,941 to 2,209, 14% improvement.
- Queen Creek was 426 and is now stablized at 464.
- Scottsdale was 241 and snow birds continued to purchase condos, it increased to 311 at 29% surge.
- Tempe was 57 and is now 68 a 19% growth.

Dollar per Square Foot

Thanks to the pricing factor, some of the markets have reached bottom.

- Anthem settled at $84.75 from previous $90.86 a month ago.
- Chandler increased from $103.47 to $104.65 month over month.
- Gilbert was $95.03 and now increased to 3 digits ground of $101.23.
- Laveen was $62.75 and is now $57.51 a sharp 8% drop due to high ratio of bank owned properties.
- Mesa increased from $84.19 to $89.17.
- Phoenix posted slightly gain from $65.22 to $67.42.
- Queen Creek was $60.01 and stablized at $61.00.
- Scottsdale was $203.25 and still at $203.81.
- Tempe was $120.22 and is now $112.32, a deep 7% lost.

Pending Listings

- Anthem 109
- Chandler 550
- Gilbert 665
- Laveen 225
- Mesa 958
- Phoenix 3,240
- Queen 714
- Scottsdale 505
- Tempe 158

The number of pending is a forward-looking indicator. At average 30 - 45 days later, pending listings will become SOLD listings. So, we shall continue to see healthy inventories and sales volume in the next 2 months. The bottom of the housing market is getting much solid.

Every city showed improvement in April over March with supply falling and demand rising. In some areas the fall in supply was breathtakingly swift. Pending sales rose yet again, actual sales continued their strong advance, and listing success rates climbed. To illustrate the change in the market since January, let's look at Months Supply for May 1st vs. Jan 1st:

1. Avondale 4.4 (was 8.9)
2. Chandler 5.7 (was 9.1)
3. Gilbert 5.2 (was 7.9)
4. Glendale 3.2 (was 9.1)
5. Goodyear 3.8 (was 8.6)
6. Mesa 4.4 (was 8.9)
7. Peoria 4.9 (was 10.3)
8. Phoenix 3.4 (was 9.0)
9. Queen Creek 2.9 (was 6.1)
10. Scottsdale 14.3 (was 19.4)
11. Surprise 3.3 (was 7.2)
12. Tempe 6.7 (was 8.7)

Below is my Metro Phoenix Housing Market Sanp Shot published bi-weekly in Asian American Times for indicators of popular cities in the Valley.